AKo preflop spot

I need some help calculating the EV in this hand,given the assumptions that :
a) Player 3 is gonna stack off only with KK+, AKs , and will have it 1/10 and fold 9/10.
b) Player 6 will stack off with QQ+,AK and will have it about 4/10 times.

To simplify I ignored the times when they both get it in.
Both are regs, no significant history with either.

So EV= .5(400) + .5(-325) = +38$ [where -325 is the averaged equity vs both their ranges( 4/5 ill lose 268 and 1/5 556)]

I havent done math for so long Im not sure any of this is correct, any input on the math or the stackoff ranges and/or frequencies is appreciated.

Submitted by : EvilSky

***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** Poker Stars
$1000.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Saturday, November 24, 07:23:26 ET 2012
Table Maria V Real Money
Seat 2 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 $1000.00 USD - VPIP: 23, PFR: 18, 3B: 5, AF: 3.4, Hands: 4103
Seat 2: Hero $1341.00 USD - VPIP: 24, PFR: 18, 3B: 8, AF: 2.5, Hands: 227945
Seat 3: Player3 $2521.00 USD - VPIP: 27, PFR: 24, 3B: 14, AF: 2.7, Hands: 386
Seat 6: Player6 $1977.00 USD - VPIP: 33, PFR: 19, 3B: 10, AF: 13.0, Hands: 78
Player3 posts small blind [$5.00 USD].
Player6 posts big blind [$10.00 USD].
Player1 posts ante of [$2.00 USD].
Hero posts ante of [$2.00 USD].
Player3 posts ante of [$2.00 USD].
Player6 posts ante of [$2.00 USD].

Holecards
Dealt to Hero [ ]
Player1 folds
Hero raises [$25.00 USD]
Player3 raises [$85.00 USD]
Player6 raises [$270.00 USD]
Hero raises [$1314.00 USD]

IMO averaging and simplifying just makes things more convoluted and inaccurate. You only really need a couple extra steps for a correct formula.

There are 4 distinct possibilities:
Only player 3 calls
Only player 6 calls
Both call
Both fold

So you need probabilities for each of those (has to total 1), and equities for each (just run through poker stove), then just multiply them together like you were doing and add them up. Keep in mind player 6's range might be different considering whether player 3 calls or not.

Your 3bet stats for both villains might be a bit high due to small sample size. Also player 3 will call with QQ and Ako significantly more often than never. Off the top of my head this is not a good shove without more history and great timing.

I agree with your approximate calculations and the method you used. The difference from .5 to the .54 it should be, and the ignoring of the slightly different potsizes depending on who calls shouldn't be too problematic. The 4% of the time they both call prob takes about another 10-15 dollars from your EV so is worth keeping in mind. I have a maths degree if that lends any weight to my opinion.

Edit: the above is a maths opinion, not a strategy one, but I've worked out this exact spot a couple of times before in different situations using numbers for the individual's 3bet and cold 4bet stats and taking QQ+ as a % of that range, and I always find it's a shove more often than you think and only really a fold in the more obvious spots (nits and early positions being involved).

Thanks guys, I used the method mcnasty suggests and got a revised result of +12$. I think its not unlikely that player 3 has a wider calling range but our equity vs that range becomes better so it probably cancels out the lose of FE.
What bothers me now are the frequencies,given its 4 handed BU vs blinds Im pretty certain 1/10 is close enough for player 3 but the fact that player 6 made it 3x the 3b might mean our FE vs him is way lower than 60%...

oly you are sexy

i know this wouldn't answer your question, but i'd try to make a small 5bet rather than jam. feels like the slightly more +ev play to me.

Yeah I thought about that but I dunno, even if I just cib Im still gonna have a hard time folding to a jam from player 6, possibly can fold to player 3 and obv if they both ship it in. But it also leaves room for 6 to flat.

How sure are you that villains in the hand have their nutted range at that exact frequency you described? obv the ev in this hand changes drastically with different frequencies...almost seems like you threw out frequencies that will make a shove pretty clearly +ev/0ev at worst.

im never 5b/folding ak

i'd 5b/fold aq to balance my frequencies.

On November 28 2012 15:09 YoMeR wrote: How sure are you that villains in the hand have their nutted range at that exact frequency you described? obv the ev in this hand changes drastically with different frequencies...almost seems like you threw out frequencies that will make a shove pretty clearly +ev/0ev at worst.

I have no way of knowing that, for player 3 I think its reasonable he has 10-14 % 3b SB vs BU but player 6 might have it 60,70 or like 100% I dunno, thats why I ask.

I dont really see the point to 5b calling over jamming, why would I even want to 5b bluff AQ here when I need to get a fold around half the time but when we hold AQ they have more combos of nutted hands compared to AK, plus the option for 6 to flat a ton of his range.

Nevermind