Do you take the flip for the chiplead?

I'm playing in a live 200$ deepstack, long structured tourney in Montreal, Quebec. We started the tournament with 100 players, and are down to 32. The blinds are 1000-2000, 200 ante. My stack is 110k

I tried to influence my tight play by showing 10 3 o earlier when i opened in late and 2 barrelled when i hit a gutty on an ace turn, but i don't think it effected the players opinion in the situated hand since it was about 2 hours earlier and i had been playing pretty tight.

Action is folded around to me in the high jack, and i 2x with AKo. The cutoff flat calls with about 80k, puck folds, SM folds, BB jams 130k. I have his range narrowed to 88-JJ 85% of the time, AJ,AQ,QQ,KK,AA 12.5%~ and strange shit 2.5%.

Blinds are up next hand. 3M in play.

I think my call is stupid, and i could have waited for a much better spot to stack off, but i;d like some opinions. I would be top 5 in chips if i win.

opinion?

SNAPcall

you just answered your own question.

poker stove that range with all combos of 88+ and AJ+ and you'll be doing more than good enough to make this an easy snap call

i doubt his range is even that tight unless you got some read.

and also by the title of the topic it's pretty clear villain had a pp from TT to QQ obvs.

On October 23 2012 14:35 YoMeR wrote: you just answered your own question. poker stove that range with all combos of 88+ and AJ+ and you'll be doing more than good enough to make this an easy snap call i doubt his range is even that tight unless you got some read.

all combos of aj+ is unreasonable
i think from villains post he really doesn't think villain has aj or aq here i think it's "i hope maybe he could have that".

I'd probably fold here.

it really comes down to personal preference if u want to just cash or the opponents are easy then let it go

i did have my opponent pegged for 10's or JJ's. i should have folded and waited for a better spot, simply because live players are atrocious and super easy to read.

On October 23 2012 17:51 asdf2000 wrote: Show nested quote + On October 23 2012 14:35 YoMeR wrote: you just answered your own question. poker stove that range with all combos of 88+ and AJ+ and you'll be doing more than good enough to make this an easy snap call i doubt his range is even that tight unless you got some read. all combos of aj+ is unreasonable i think from villains post he really doesn't think villain has aj or aq here i think it's "i hope maybe he could have that". I'd probably fold here. it really comes down to personal preference if u want to just cash or the opponents are easy then let it go

if villain doesn't have AJ or AQ here then villain's range here is TT+ and AK+ then that makes this an easy snap fold

I'd argue tho that even with 1/4 the combs of AJ like AJs only and only half combos of AQo and all combs of AQs+ then this is an easy snap call

hell if villain ever shows up with AQ here + the fact that we have to add in some spazzes too then it makes it harder and harder to fold the nuts here.

basically what i'd advocate is that without a strong enough read folding AK for 55 big blinds is likely a very huge mistake.

if he can have aq aj then it's an easy call. if you're actually certain he has tt or jj (or better) then your actual edge should be higher than the small amount of chips you'd earn due to moneyinthepot, although possibly less than how massively you should be able to dominate if you were actually twice as big. honestly, I don't mind a fold - but i'd never tell anyone.

With your read I would snap fold. But I am a very competent experienced mtt player. But if your asking this question its probably a call. Not that your terrible your just not likely one of the best players in the field. Realistly going by your reads that hes not likely to have aq or worse id give us about 55% vs his range . . So basicly from chip ev if we have a better then 5% edge vs the field(which isint alot) we can fold although winning the flip can also add future ev so its really sketched math. Looks like your out of the money too so I think its a fold for any winning player.

But thats with your reads. If your read is off alot its more like 60+% and it becomes an amazing spot very fast

From a pure # of chips EV perspective (basically if this was a cash game) the mistake you make by calling when your read is right is generally a lot smaller of a mistake than the one you make by folding if your read is wrong.

I'd just be wary of trying to play perfect in a spot like this. If you're leveling yourself then you're missing out on a lot of EV, and spots this good won't come around that often. So at least I wouldn't beat yourself up about the call.

call

flipping for chipleads.

if your a dog vs ur opponents, do it all day.

if you have an edge, avoid unless your 70/30+

70/30?

Really.

unless you want to be Spastic.