$1 PLO turn barrel facing medium checkraise

Villain is playing 25/19 with an afq of 52 over 2.3k hands. His Call 2Bet in the BB is 21. His fold to CBet is 57.
From playing with him I know he can be unorthodox in certain spots. He is capable of turning made hands into bluffs as the board texture changes and isn't afraid to put in money light. I would describe villain as high intensity.
How would you proceed?

Submitted by : InsideMan

$1 PL Hi 6 max - Omaha Hi - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

SB: $130.55
BB: $98.90
UTG: $104.46
Hero CO : $490.11
BTN: $109.35

SB posts SB $1.00, BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: pot: $2.00 Hero has

fold, Hero raises to $3.00, fold, fold, BB calls $2.00

Flop: $7.00, 2 players
BB checks, Hero bets $6.00, BB calls $6.00

Turn: $19.00, 2 players
BB checks, Hero bets $14.00, BB raises to $38.00, Hero

Check turn, fold turn.

We don't really have enough equity to turn our hand into a bluff and if we call river will just be too difficult to play.

I don't mind the turnbet vs most but we sure as hell can't continue with this other then vs total maniacs so I'd much rather think for a couple of seconds, check and then play poker on the river. Probably bluffing diamonds and straight completing cards, calling jacks and clubs and probably any Q/K/A/2 most of the time depending on timing and sizing. Might raise a riverbet on A (as a bluff) too since PLO100-people tend to respect that stuff.

Aren't diamonds and straightening cards hard to rep though? I'd imagine we would be barreling most of our diamond draws and straight draws on this turn card.

My problem with his turn check-raise is that he isn't representing much. JJ is almost not possible, 44 is blocked and is he raising the turn? 77 is unlikely, J7 is possible, but we block a J and he's raising some J7 combos on the flop. We block A7 and is he raising that on the turn? I know it's against PLO fundamentals, but if he folds ~50% then a shove would be profitable.
I should also add that I've seen him make this play against me before, but there was no showdown.

On August 26 2012 13:04 InsideMan wrote: but if he folds ~50% then a shove would be profitable.

He's definitely not folding anything he's raising for value, and I think you might have a little too much faith in blockers to assume he'll have a draw more often than not here, and even if he does the odds he's getting are good enough he still might call and have some fair equity against you.

If you've seen villain make this type of play before its all the more reason to check turn. Betting only seems to make sense if villain respects the paired board to much and just pitches his draws easily.

I don't expect him to fold anything he is raising for value. I do think it's possible he would checkraise some jt9, jt8 type hands though. The break even point for him having a draw (assuming he always folds) is 44% (assuming ~8% equity when we are called).

I acknowledge the general advice of checking back on the turn, but I'm not convinced there is nothing we can do against his check-raise. I've taken a look at some numbers using ProPokerTools:

I estimated villains range to be the following:
(88t9,99t8,tt98,qq: (dd,98,t8,56),(77,44)!(kdd,add),(add)!(56,98,t8,77,44,jj),(kdd): (56,98,t8)!(77,44),9t8: (dd)!(kd,ad,qd),9t8!dd):21%3h!5%3h!jj

That's 3096 combos (removal effects will be included in all combo mentions).

On the turn villain will have 380 combos of trips or better (12.26% using interactive hand stats). He has up to 1793 combos of less than top pair or worse that I assume he could be bluffing with. Villain has a flop donk of 22% so I think he would lead some of his draws and this number is exaggerated. I will remove 50% of the hands he could have check-called the flop with leaving him with 897 combos. Keep in mind I am not removing any of the ways he can have trips or better and I am assuming he will checkraise 100% of his trips or better, ergo I am considering the worst case scenario.
I mentioned above that if we shove, villain needs to be bluffing 44% of the time assuming he always folds a draw and we have 8% equity against his calling range. This means villain needs to decide to checkraise a draw ((380/56)*44)/897=33% of the time on the turn when he holds a draw and is facing my turn barrel for a shove to be breakeven.

I am not claiming this model is perfect or anything, but I think the numbers indicate that it could be worth considering something other than folding. What do you think?

On August 28 2012 13:30 InsideMan wrote: This means villain needs to decide to checkraise a draw ((380/56)*44)/897=33% of the time on the turn when he holds a draw and is facing my turn barrel for a shove to be breakeven.

I don't think even your average aggressive villain is playing a draw like this 33% of the time, but if your read is that he makes tricky plays like this a lot and if the timing is right, go ahead and shove.