UFC on Fox: Shogun vs. Vera - Page 4

these superfights like AS vs JJ are clearly -EV for each fighter, and its not even close. Jon Jones even admits that one major reason he doesn't fight AS is because the risks outweight the potential upside. http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2012/7/10/...silva-we-could-both-lose-sponsorships

Deep down, I bet these guys would like to fight for reasons you mentioned, but they aren't because they'd rather make the correct financial decision.

It's also -EV for the UFC - they go in with two superstars and leave with one superstar.

On August 02 2012 22:39 WhyYouKickMyDog wrote: these superfights like AS vs JJ are clearly -EV for each fighter, and its not even close. Jon Jones even admits that one major reason he doesn't fight AS is because the risks outweight the potential upside. http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2012/7/10/...silva-we-could-both-lose-sponsorships Deep down, I bet these guys would like to fight for reasons you mentioned, but they aren't because they'd rather make the correct financial decision. It's also -EV for the UFC - they go in with two superstars and leave with one superstar.

Yes i never said it was a smart move for a fighter, but its not money the motivation, Anderson Silva isnt afraid of a 10% income cut, he is afraid of getting the shit kicked out by bigger guys totally destroying his image and legacy in his mind.


How this isnt obvious to anybody, Silva isnt Jones, its not an upcoming career, he could get way more money if he talked with Dana and arranged super fights, they are more profitable to ZUFFA than stupid Weidman, so again its not about money its about Silva retiring as "the best p2p in the world"

If Silva is already regarded as the best p4p fighter in the world then what does he have to gain by picking a fight with jones, especially since he would probably lose?

On August 03 2012 02:55 teej1985 wrote: If Silva is already regarded as the best p4p fighter in the world then what does he have to gain by picking a fight with jones, especially since he would probably lose?

thanks for proving my point, its all about what is he regarded as

But given he will probably lose it seems rational on his part. Why would he want to potentially expose himself?

I definately respect guys like Dan Henderson/bj penn etc who WANT to fight the best of the best for the challenge, but GSP/Silva end up with way more money/fame/records etc so you cant really blame people for playing it safe when they are already at the very top and dont have much to gain by taking risks

^i think it's easier to do that when you lose a few as you no longer have anything to lose by doing such a thing.

also the mind part of people like AS who haven't lost in so long must be scary!

On August 03 2012 03:25 teej1985 wrote: I definately respect guys like Dan Henderson/bj penn etc who WANT to fight the best of the best for the challenge, but GSP/Silva end up with way more money/fame/records etc so you cant really blame people for playing it safe when they are already at the very top and dont have much to gain by taking risks

i understand why they do it, i just dont respect it, who gives a shit about undefeated and records and their ego trips, i want to see Silva have epic battles.

Weigh-ins start at 18:00 LP.net.

+ Show Spoiler +

On August 03 2012 05:07 Baalim wrote: Show nested quote + On August 03 2012 03:25 teej1985 wrote: I definately respect guys like Dan Henderson/bj penn etc who WANT to fight the best of the best for the challenge, but GSP/Silva end up with way more money/fame/records etc so you cant really blame people for playing it safe when they are already at the very top and dont have much to gain by taking risks i understand why they do it, i just dont respect it, who gives a shit about undefeated and records and their ego trips, i want to see Silva have epic battles.

agreed

Playing it safe? Silva already said he wants to fight GSP who is the 2nd toughest non-heavyweight in the world. He could just stay within his weight class and kick around Bisping and Tim Boetsch until he retires. GSP still has some tough fights left in his division and always has, so you can't blame him for not changing weight classes.

anderson wouldnt last 5 minutes with jones. its such an easy style matchup for jon. anderson has underrated takedown defense, but he wouldnt be able to stop anything from jon. and once jon is on top of you the fight is over pretty much immediately. anderson has a godly chin but not even he could survive those elbows. he may swivel around to safety but jon would probably submit him if that happened. id bet on jones up to -400 here.

anderson would probably wreck GSP. some chance GSP wins a decision, but the problem is that GSP doesnt finish people and all anderson needs is 1 mistake to capitalize on. i think anderson wins a fight that looks very similar to silva/sonnen 2. id probably bet on anderson up to -175 here.


as for the fights tomorrow the key thing is that vera has no heart and shogun is pure heart. vera will crack under that sort of pressure. shogun is too tough to get finished by brandon and once vera realizes hes facing someone who is more determined than anyone he has ever faced he will just throw in the towel and give up. he just doesnt have the testicular fortitute to fight shogun. style and skill wise he can compete with a broken down shogun and should have some chance to win. but he is not mentally capable of it. ill probably end up placing a small bet on shogun by TKO just counting on him quitting at some point.

other than that betting on machida/davis parlay, rani yahya, moraga, nam phan and gonna try to bet on phil davis by submission as well.

On August 03 2012 10:19 PuertoRican wrote: Weigh-ins start at 18:00 LP.net. + Show Spoiler + Andrei Arlovski vs. Tim Sylvia @ One FC on August 31st.

Hmm Machida drinking some liquid before getting on the scale, then weighs in at 201, some thoughts of MW perhaps.

yeah, wtf with machida
I was going to bet on a parlay, Shogun + Machida + Davis but I thought it was weird that he only weight 201, plus he was drinking some liquids before

dont read too much into it. hes a small LHW that was probably planning on being 204 at weighins but took a big shit an hour before them

On August 03 2012 11:44 SleepyHead wrote: Playing it safe? Silva already said he wants to fight GSP who is the 2nd toughest non-heavyweight in the world. He could just stay within his weight class and kick around Bisping and Tim Boetsch until he retires. GSP still has some tough fights left in his division and always has, so you can't blame him for not changing weight classes.

yeah what a warrior, he is willing to fight even smaller fighters than he currently is fighting...

UFC on Fox: Shogun vs. Vera = 201 pounds
UFC 140 = 204 pounds
UFC 129 = 204.5 pounds
UFC 123 = 205 pounds
UFC 113 = 205 pounds

I like the idea of fading nam phan here, but it just sucks that the other guy isnt an underdog. hate* laying juice since its hard for me to justify it. my only angle would be that I think phan is due to flop/asian'ed out of this fight and i dont know who cole miller is as well

no one thinks the odds on bader machida fight are wrong? its paying so much for bader, i think machida is a fav but the odds are making him huge fav

i get that the tito loss screwed bader up but he changed his team setting and looked much better afterwards