$10/$20 PLO w Middle Set - Deeeep :(

Hand is an interesting spot someone else had in my game today. Villan is in his 30s who I am pretty sure has never played on the internet ever, but has played a ton of live poker experience (both NL and PLO). Things I know about Villan:

-He is a regular in these games who buys in deep.
-For the most part, he is solid when a lot of money starts going in and usually makes really good value bets in both games.
-He takes some unusual lines when out of position w draws and makes weird blocker bets w marginal hands. Does some really goofy shit in NL, none of which is all too relevant for this hand thou.
-Overall he's slightly on the stationy / spewy side, plays a lot of hands, very willing to gamble when necessary, not really scared money.
-Becomes awesome action when he starts tilting. Plays well when he is winning.
-He assumes that we are new to PLO, transitioning from NL. Probably thinks we are playing this game pretty tight and solid.

Both Hero and Villan are $10,000 deep at $10/20 half n half.

2 limps to Villan on BTN who makes it $120 to go. Hero in BB calls w , both limpers call. 4 way to flop

Flop: (Pot: $480)
Hero leads for $360. Limpers fold. Villan raises pretty quickly to $1400. Hero tanks for a bit and then calls (thoughts??)

Turn: (Pot: $3280)
Hero checks, Villan bets $2800. Hero has $8500 behind on turn. Thoughts????

seems like a painful but pretty easy fold. having 2 kings and the Kh blocks a lot of the semibluff hands and means he shows up with QQ a ton. if he has QQ like 40% here its a fold since the only other value hands he should show up with this deep are monster draw (no worse than AAJhh), QT+big draw or 77+draw. of these he shows up with QQxx the most since there are way more combos of that than more limiting hands like J977hh. QQ is also the only thing he for sure plays like this. since hes either showing up with hands that have decent equity vs you or something that has you drawing to 3 or less outs i think its a fold

Seems like a shove. I don't see why villains range has to be so tight by the way he's described.

If you're gonna fold a brick turn like this I think you gotta just fold flop.

On July 27 2012 12:23 Daut wrote: seems like a painful but pretty easy fold. having 2 kings and the Kh blocks a lot of the semibluff hands and means he shows up with QQ a ton. if he has QQ like 40% here its a fold since the only other value hands he should show up with this deep are monster draw (no worse than AAJhh), QT+big draw or 77+draw. of these he shows up with QQxx the most since there are way more combos of that than more limiting hands like J977hh. QQ is also the only thing he for sure plays like this. since hes either showing up with hands that have decent equity vs you or something that has you drawing to 3 or less outs i think its a fold

.... the decision is pretty clearly between calling and shoving.

lol

On July 28 2012 01:18 JonnyCosMo wrote: Show nested quote + On July 27 2012 12:23 Daut wrote: seems like a painful but pretty easy fold. having 2 kings and the Kh blocks a lot of the semibluff hands and means he shows up with QQ a ton. if he has QQ like 40% here its a fold since the only other value hands he should show up with this deep are monster draw (no worse than AAJhh), QT+big draw or 77+draw. of these he shows up with QQxx the most since there are way more combos of that than more limiting hands like J977hh. QQ is also the only thing he for sure plays like this. since hes either showing up with hands that have decent equity vs you or something that has you drawing to 3 or less outs i think its a fold .... the decision is pretty clearly between calling and shoving.

comedic genius, clearly.

Oh forgot to mention that Villan is currently winning in this session.

when hero flats villain will assume that hero's hand will be very weighted towards drawy hands (you just said villain assumes hero plays a solidish/tight game)

Do you know if villain assumes hero is shoving all strong made hands (2 pair + flush draw, sets etc?)

i think it's a clear turn shove if we aren't folding...he isn't folding any of his big draws and big made hands (lower set, and 2 pair + draw or even 2 pair..fuck it ppl are bad at live)

can u really afford playing PLO 10k deep? -.-

i think calling the flop with the intention of possibly getting a live read and turning our hand into a bluff on an AJ9 heart and playing for value on KT isnt terrible. but youre right, if youre just calling the flop because you have a set thats bad. its an easier fold than the turn cause the draws he has there are probably favorites vs you instead of slight dogs

i really think he has QQ a lot of the time and getting it in here would be pure spew. we need 42% vs him to continue and i have trouble believing we are above 37% vs any reasonable range given his description. this is 500bbb deep and the only hand we are sure he would play this fast is QQxx which is a shitload of combos. everything else is discounted cause of how specific it needs to be. AhAJhx, AhKJhx, QT+AJhh, QThJhx,KJQT?,77+hearts, KJ9+hearts. these are really rare combos and he might choose to play some slower. and the fact that we have 2 kings (including the king of hearts) and 2 tens makes it more unlikely he has some of those top 2 or wrap type hands

I gotta say though, I messed w/ this hand on pro poker tools for a bit and you really gotta stretch villain's range to get the 42% equity you need to shove here. Villain has to be doing this with naked nut flush draws for a shove to show any profit.
I'm thinking it is in fact a fold in a vacuum and given that we're deep and playing live vacuum play is in order.

That said we're folding 2nd set on the turn when there are no possible straights or flushes. From a balance standpoint folding just seems really bad . Interesting hand Cosmo,I think there's a clash of poker philosophies here.

On July 28 2012 10:56 NMcNasty wrote: I gotta say though, I messed w/ this hand on pro poker tools for a bit and you really gotta stretch villain's range to get the 42% equity you need to shove here. Villain has to be doing this with naked nut flush draws for a shove to show any profit. I'm thinking it is in fact a fold in a vacuum and given that we're deep and playing live vacuum play is in order. That said we're folding 2nd set on the turn when there are no possible straights or flushes. From a balance standpoint folding just seems really bad . Interesting hand Cosmo,I think there's a clash of poker philosophies here.

its not bad at all from a game theory standpoint. we led a 4 way QT7hh flop. we are probably doing this with big draws, QQ and TT. naked TT is the only thing we are folding. we have plenty of combos that we can continue with here, doubt we are being exploited by folding such a strong hand (that is actually not the top of our range or a draw which we can call again)

On July 28 2012 10:33 Daut wrote: i think calling the flop with the intention of possibly getting a live read and turning our hand into a bluff on an AJ9 heart and playing for value on KT isnt terrible.

I don't think we're ever getting a live read vs described villain and turning our hand into a bluff is gonna require two barrels if villain has QQ a lot. Villain also might not stack off on a king turn. The other problem is that the board is so draw heavy we can never expect villain to check back the turn on bricks.

On July 28 2012 11:06 Daut wrote: Show nested quote + On July 28 2012 10:56 NMcNasty wrote: I gotta say though, I messed w/ this hand on pro poker tools for a bit and you really gotta stretch villain's range to get the 42% equity you need to shove here. Villain has to be doing this with naked nut flush draws for a shove to show any profit. I'm thinking it is in fact a fold in a vacuum and given that we're deep and playing live vacuum play is in order. That said we're folding 2nd set on the turn when there are no possible straights or flushes. From a balance standpoint folding just seems really bad . Interesting hand Cosmo,I think there's a clash of poker philosophies here. its not bad at all from a game theory standpoint. we led a 4 way QT7hh flop. we are probably doing this with big draws, QQ and TT. naked TT is the only thing we are folding. we have plenty of combos that we can continue with here, doubt we are being exploited by folding such a strong hand (that is actually not the top of our range or a draw which we can call again)

With 2 limpers in the pot I think our value range and semibluffing range has to be a bit wider. We can't depend on a cbet from villain on this board and passive limpers will check it around a lot. Villain also perceives our preflop range as being fairly wide.

Info on limpers' stack sizes and skill level might be relevant here, it gives us an idea about how wide villain thinks our preflop and flop betting range is.

I don't see it that unlikely of villain having a line of thinking in the nature of "his preflop range is so wide how often does he really have QQ here. Can he really afford to get in with anything worse? I raise."

On July 28 2012 09:33 Fayth wrote: can u really afford playing PLO 10k deep? -.-

This isn't my hand, I usually play PLO a lot shorter than NL since Im still learning.

KhKsTdTc 41.70%
QQ@100,77@50,(hhKJ,J98))@50,(AhAQh,AhAJh,(AhAQ,AhAJ:hh))@50 58.30%

Thought this range was quite tight for villain at first, but dunno. Seems quite close. Most likely I ship when I am losing in the session, otherwise not sure, might fold it if ahead and about to finish soon to avoid future tilt losses

Thoughts on flop line and call? As McNasty said, there isn't much info to be gained caz most villans (and def this one) will b barreling on blank turns w this flop texture. I mean it could be a flop fold? That seems gross to think of (but maybe not gross for u PLO players)

it's an easy ship or at least call, hero lead/called, I think that was a mistake I'd rather c/raise or c/c that flop... if you aren't even gonna play it for stacks and a shiiiit load of turns are bad for you what are you really acomplishing by leading? im noob omaha

3b pf