100nlHU line check

Friend/student of mine played this hand.

http://weaktight.com/4872139
( I know people get annoyed when I don't use the converter but honest to god I tried to get this to format properly on the LP hh's converter from raw holdem manager text for over 20mins. it was played on ipoker.
random cards wouldn't show up, or only the full board would show but on the turn, the pot would never count properly, etc.
So my apologies in advance for putting weaktight on here. If mods need the hh in question, PM and I'd be happy to provide it. whatev i can do to help..)

general:
78/43 fish whose style has been leading 60%+ of flops. hero been whiffing a lot of flops and been giving up a fair # of small pots.
3xs-4xs 70-75%bu, limping 12%, flding rest. 90 hands.
small sample but hero has been paying attention
OOP every time he has checked, he folded 75%+. Leading gutshots, not sure if 2brling. Seen one random retarded fish calldown with 3rd pair:
-932-6 he donk-lead K2 after flt pf, call 2/3 on turn.
hero chose this hand to see what he would do with limps vs raises for the first time.

specific:
In the dark about river play, but heros impression based on 0 info (not wacky, like <3AF flop/turn) is he isn't bluffing all missed draws.
hero expects him not to float flop without equity (like JTo) or an A2+ type hand, and to bet all queens on the flop and check most weaker pairs.
not sure abt 8x/boats, slowplays obv possible.
Gameflow: vill has been winning (first hand lead a gutshot, hero raised twopair and he filled up on turn to stack for 30bb), won most of the pots over the last 5-10mins
from aformentioned leading/hero whiffing flops.

in summary it's just a "we're pretty sure he can be bluffing missed draws here, his value range is lolnarrow from reads, but it's his first limp so we're not sure about a lot of things."

I've run the combos and come to a conclusion, and provided as much relevant info as possible.
Wanted to see if you guys thought the same thing.

edit: some people might think we should check preflop always.
feel free to mention that, and why.
in support of raising: -he's been folding to cbets every time he hasn't lead, and getting more info about his limps helps us play future free chkd flops better, in addition to helping narrow/confirm parts of his wide preflop range

isnt checking pre better?

given the bet size on the flop id assume he is floating much more than you think.

do you mean he IS floating with JT? the way you have phrased it suggests that he isnt.

id say hed be floating with KJ (despite not really being in his range considered) and maybe 97s etc

the meaning of that line (i muddled it up with double negatives didn't i)
-i expect villain to fold a lot.
so JTo is near the bottom of what I think he would call. with fish, stuff that vaguely hits a backdoor like T7 97 76 KJ may call as well.

more importantly, what does that float mean for our riverplay? that's what I'm trying to discuss anyway b/c i feel raisevschk bb can be a stylistic/gameflow/impression thing

our hand has too much playability issues postflop to raise this pre OOP imo.

First critique I have on your thought process is: I don't think it is relevant that JT/9T/(J9) and suited combos around the 79s and T8s area miss. It can definately be argued that this will be raised pre (these hands are definately within a 75% raisingrange imo), so I'm definately willing to cut this part out of his range. Therefore I don't think it matters that the straightdraws miss, as I don't see him having those


I can't see a call being profitable here for that reason, and it gets even worse if he's betting like 67o@river because whatever thought process fishes have

If you chose to raise pre and cbet flop Id follow thru on the turn too and possibly river. As played I dont like calling or raising, he can have diamonds,8x and Kx for value and also some bluffs that beat us, I dont think calling is super crazy but I think folding is best.

man, I really think is unecessary to be raising A2o oop in his first limp
and I think vs a random fish you just can't make your plays based on this really specific reads ( specially in such a small sample) like "he folds everytime he doesn't lead"or something like "hero expects him not to float without equity"

this reads are pretty random and very hard to be solid since the ranges in hu are pretty wide, fishs are mostly clicking buttons randonly and he can change his plays if he feels like you giving up pots or w/hetever, fishs doesn't even need a reason to float
it's a pretty trivial fold pre to me, and even on the river, the only reason you could find a call is to get info or something because you are splitting or losing most of the time, ( giving the pot odds you call prob isn't super -EV and I think it's close to breakeven but is hard to estimate this since is such a random spot without any solid reads ) but as I said, most fishs don't rationalize their plays and even if you get some info now, you probably won't base your later plays in that, specially since people hit and run in everytime nowadays

Don't raise pre, bet flop bigger, call or fold river depending on his bluffing frequency.

Uh.. fold and pick a better spot

forgot to check this thread...

On July 27 2012 06:34 rogier wrote: our hand has too much playability issues postflop to raise this pre OOP imo. First critique I have on your thought process is: I don't think it is relevant that JT/9T/(J9) and suited combos around the 79s and T8s area miss. It can definately be argued that this will be raised pre (these hands are definately within a 75% raisingrange imo), so I'm definately willing to cut this part out of his range. Therefore I don't think it matters that the straightdraws miss, as I don't see him having those I can't see a call being profitable here for that reason, and it gets even worse if he's betting like 67o@river because whatever thought process fishes have

Agree about river and came to the same conclusion.

I'm curious, what are people's raising ranges here against wide limpers they expect to fold to a lot of cbets?
Not in this specific hand, but:
-we are oop.
-impression that he is loose passive, so from a general theory point of view, he's not going to cause us to make a lot of fundamental mistakes.
-It is unknown how much he'll limp call or limp fold, but reasonably he'll fold at least some of the time.
-We're pretty sure villain will fold 40%+ to cbets overall, obviously we are going to have a higher success % when we adjust for board texture.
-all basic the future streets barreling stuff applies

I'm asking because the standard 20% seems low to me.
I was looking at any suited ace, 54s+ (but not gapped like 57s), A9o+, Q8s+, maybe T9o, which gets up past 30%. Thoughts?
Answer with a description of the range and a % if possible.

edit: i'll add in case it wasn't clear enough, I think this is a pretty easy fold if you run the combos. rogier's explanation is also good enough.

30% is pushing it, would probably go Axs A8o+ K7s+ K9o+ Q8s/QTo+ 8Ts+ 78s+ 9To which probably is around 27ish%?
cutting out K9o/K7s the moment BU is somewhat active/floaty

cool.
and yeah, tailor to suit from villain.

well, thanks for your time Rogier (and everyone else).
I know I learned something.

you don't even need to pick every little edge you can against a fish, you can just wait for good easy profitable spots and take all their money, as for this hand he shud always check pre.... as played just fold river, fishes are bluffing way too often with hands that have showdown value just cuz they have no idea what they're doing

ugh, try listing less info ... it's so hard to read through all that and even figure out where the actual info about the hand is ... i think you have kind of a bad habit from that, maybe from me telling you always "more info is better".... most of my play has always been either completely readless or gameflow based.

preflop is way way too light ... maybe its +ev, but incredibly high variance if so.

as played, standard call on the river.

strongest reason to chk pre is that he will limp better aces otb meaning you are building a pot when dominated frequently.

On August 05 2012 18:50 MARSHALL28 wrote: strongest reason to chk pre is that he will limp better aces otb meaning you are building a pot when dominated frequently.

yeah this, 78/43 fish - if hes opening 43% of hands its prob safe to say hes never limping big aces

On August 02 2012 23:17 Fayth wrote: as played just fold river, fishes are bluffing way too often with hands that have showdown value just cuz they have no idea what they're doing

On August 05 2012 18:50 MARSHALL28 wrote: as played, standard call on the river.

I know a lot of people are going to see this as a semi basic hand, but it should surprise anyone paying attention that there is some disagreement about the river call.

A lot of people seem to think this is a standard fistpump. He can have a lot of draws, etc. And the people who aren't sure aren't even mentioning it (despite it being the point of the thread, and not the preflop). I discussed this spot with two friends recently, and basically argued from a hand combos + fish being wide enough type deal, that this has to be a river fold.

for the record, im in complete agreement with fayth after doing some combo math a month or two ago, whenever this was posted. AJ is the not the same hand as A2 here, but it's still not good enough to call in this spot.
I think it's a pretty fundamental leak if you think this is a no-brainer call.

theres no way im folding the river.

lets assume he's as passive as you say he is. if that's the case, he's not betting a Q on the river ever. theres actually a pretty damn good chance he doesn't even bet like Kxss on the river because he would be afraid of trip 8s or diamonds. he never has 8x when he chks behind the turn. so what does that leave for value? ... potentially a KQ that didn't bet the turn when there were possible straight draws and two possible flush draws? okay if he's so passive maybe that's the case that he just wants to get to showdown. maybe he bets KQ on the river. so it leaves that or diamonds. QTdd or Q9dd or something like that sure makes perfect sense. but if we take these few combos and compare them to all the combos of T9 JT J9 and all the random spades he could be bluffing there are WAY more potential bluff than value combos.

if u put him on this super super tight range and decide to fold i guess you are basically just ignoring the fact that he is SOOOO wide preflop and hedging your bets that it's more likely he made some really strong hand in this spot than it is likely that he just might not be as passive as you think.

if you are making those folds on the regular, u r getting bluffed way more often than you realize.

this is a CLEAR call and theres no question.

I was halfway through redoing/typing up how the I felt the combos made calling unattractive last night, but I think this is a more concise way of putting it:

-I know that his range for hitting the river contains more hands I beat than hands I don't.
-When I play against recreational players that are not obviously bluff happy (low aggression in all its forms), and call here, I don't feel I am good 27% of the time.
This is a hunch I have from playing a lot of poker. I admit there is some selection bias here for remembering hands I have lost.
-This leads me to think that there is a population trait (stronger as I observe more passivity from vill), for randoms not bluffing as much as I originally thought.

Randoms have a lot of missed draws here. Randoms aren't betting them all the time. It's up to Hero to decide whether that freq is high enough.
Am I making sense?

check pre and fold river doesn't look bad to me