10/20 get c/r on river

Basically readless here... guy is probably a reg.

10/20 blinds

UTG opens 60, I call MP 88, all others fold. (4k effective)

Flop As8c7h he chk I bet 100 into ~140 he calls

Turn 9c he chk I bet 320 into ~340, he calls.

River 7d he chk I bet ~760 into ~980, he makes it 1500 more.

Notsureifsrs.jpg

Shove

I mean if he's a real nitty reg you can just flat i guess.

...the decision is pretty clearly between folding and calling

...maybe add how deep we are?

On July 18 2012 22:35 MARSHALL28 wrote: ...the decision is pretty clearly between folding and calling

lol no

Folding is terrible, average reg has worse often enough in his value range, and I generally feel we're even ahead. Though if we assume avg 10/20 reg is good enough to fold 76 and straights here despite the sick odds he'll be getting I think we gotta just call.

On July 18 2012 23:01 NMcNasty wrote: Folding is terrible, average reg has worse often enough in his value range, and I generally feel we're even ahead. Though if we assume avg 10/20 reg is good enough to fold 76 and straights here despite the sick odds he'll be getting I think we gotta just call.

if u r gonna use the stake as a default way to gauge the avg skill level of a player in these games then you probably gotta assume that if he's ever going to consider c/c the flop w/ 76 that he's 100% c/r this turn with it since he'd have to assume that my MP flatting range is pretty strong (as it is), making 67 a pretty bad c/c on the flop and then very obviously a much worse c/c on the turn. the only bluff i have at that point is KQcc (and even that im probably 3betting at least 50% of the time) since i wouldn't ever flat qjs, jts has a straight, and t9s turned a pair so if i bet that on the turn im bluffing with the best hand. everything else is AK/AQ or pr bigger than 9s.

Well initially I read hand wrong, thouht we were the initial opener. I guess utg c/caliing on all streets and repopping river points to one hand.... But the read required to fold this is so insane. Considering your description of no real reads, I think you have to call and take your cooler, despite having a hard time assigning any real range.

On July 18 2012 22:55 Baalim wrote: Show nested quote + On July 18 2012 22:35 MARSHALL28 wrote: ...the decision is pretty clearly between folding and calling lol no

sigh ... why do i bother posting a hand, ever.

The unlikely occurence of AA here is greater or smaller than the occurence of goofy played hand or spazz I think is the crux of this hand.

Also not saying check river, but I try and consciously juggle ranges in my head as we go to showdown. Was there a certain range of hands u were trying to target on the river? Although I never have played this hi, I can't think of many preflop utg hands that can c/call on an A high board over 3 streets. I would have bet smaller to try and induce or get a crying call from hands like KK QQ and prob have sized the turn smaller.

Hopefully my points aren't terribly mundane.

On July 18 2012 23:12 MARSHALL28 wrote: Show nested quote + On July 18 2012 23:01 NMcNasty wrote: Folding is terrible, average reg has worse often enough in his value range, and I generally feel we're even ahead. Though if we assume avg 10/20 reg is good enough to fold 76 and straights here despite the sick odds he'll be getting I think we gotta just call. if u r gonna use the stake as a default way to gauge the avg skill level of a player in these games then you probably gotta assume that if he's ever going to consider c/c the flop w/ 76 that he's 100% c/r this turn with it since he'd have to assume that my MP flatting range is pretty strong (as it is), making 67 a pretty bad c/c on the flop and then very obviously a much worse c/c on the turn. the only bluff i have at that point is KQcc (and even that im probably 3betting at least 50% of the time) since i wouldn't ever flat qjs, jts has a straight, and t9s turned a pair so if i bet that on the turn im bluffing with the best hand. everything else is AK/AQ or pr bigger than 9s.

I mean there's pretty much no hand it makes sense for him to have according to standard lines. Check/calling with a draw on the flop or pair+draw on the turn with the option of bluffing a later street is really not that unheard of.

On July 18 2012 23:25 patti wrote: The unlikely occurence of AA here is greater or smaller than the occurence of goofy played hand or spazz I think is the crux of this hand. Also not saying check river, but I try and consciously juggle ranges in my head as we go to showdown. Was there a certain range of hands u were trying to target on the river? Although I never have played this hi, I can't think of many preflop utg hands that can c/call on an A high board over 3 streets. I would have bet smaller to try and induce or get a crying call from hands like KK QQ and prob have sized the turn smaller. Hopefully my points aren't terribly mundane.

nah u make a good point about the river. i do want to near pot the turn tho to rep bluffs, but now i have so few bluffs on the river in my range i probly shoulda gone much smaller, maybe less than half pot, that or overbet.

On July 18 2012 23:30 NMcNasty wrote: Show nested quote + On July 18 2012 23:12 MARSHALL28 wrote:   On July 18 2012 23:01 NMcNasty wrote: Folding is terrible, average reg has worse often enough in his value range, and I generally feel we're even ahead. Though if we assume avg 10/20 reg is good enough to fold 76 and straights here despite the sick odds he'll be getting I think we gotta just call. if u r gonna use the stake as a default way to gauge the avg skill level of a player in these games then you probably gotta assume that if he's ever going to consider c/c the flop w/ 76 that he's 100% c/r this turn with it since he'd have to assume that my MP flatting range is pretty strong (as it is), making 67 a pretty bad c/c on the flop and then very obviously a much worse c/c on the turn. the only bluff i have at that point is KQcc (and even that im probably 3betting at least 50% of the time) since i wouldn't ever flat qjs, jts has a straight, and t9s turned a pair so if i bet that on the turn im bluffing with the best hand. everything else is AK/AQ or pr bigger than 9s. I mean there's pretty much no hand it makes sense for him to have according to standard lines. Check/calling with a draw on the flop or pair+draw on the turn with the option of bluffing a later street is really not that unheard of.

exactly...

why else did i point out that if he happened to c/c 67 (and yeah that's a type of play i potentially make against very strong players) on the flop that he would 100% have to c/r it on this specific turn for the flop c/c to ever be a good idea.

hands that make sense for him according to "standard" lines ... AA/99.

would like to hear a convincing argument that i can expect this guy to show up w/ anything worse than AA or 99 here, haven't heard one yet unless you want to pile a ton of stock into the "u have a really strong hand and maybe he's spazzing out" type logic which i rarely subscribe to.

i did fold this river, really wanted to see how many other ppl were folding it tho. between this thread and the one in CR seems no one else would have folded.

we can find out tomorrow what he had tho cuz this was at an anonymous table.

Is this fullring or 6m?

: /

this is an easy just call imo. i think shoving is too thin and folding is just stupid. expect to see 97/87/A7/99/AA. would expect 97 to fold on occasion, the others to call a shove. of course hes prob not raising as many 97 and A7 as he is AA/99. but whatever he has all those hands and enough other randomness to make calling fine when youre getting reasonable odds

i do think on occasion he check calls the 2 pair hands on the flop and 97 instead of betting or check raising. and then check calls again on the turn based on his flop play. its not super likely but i think that combined with randomness of other shit is more than enough to justify a call getting like 2260+760+950=4000:1500 ~ 2.6:1 only need to win ~28%

Jesus i hate your undertones... I cant believe anyone even bothered to give you insight.