10/20 @ Aria - 3b pot with terra bad runout

Hand is from tonight. Villan is a young kid who sat down 30 minutes before this hand and bought in w $6,000. Only previous history that is probably relevant is that he raised hijack, I 3bet BTN to $240, he called and chk/folded a Q9c7c flop to my cbet. About an orbit or two later this hand happens:

Random player limps UTG, Villan raises to $80 in hijack, I 3bet BTN to $260 w . Villan tanks for a bit then calls. Everyone fold.

Flop: (Pot: $550)
Villan checks, I bet $340, Villan calls.

Flop: (Pot: $1230)
Villan checks, I bet $900, Villan calls.

Flop: (Pot: $3030)
Villan tanks for a bit, then leads for $1900 (leaving $1600 behind). Hero???????

Feels like a fold. Has to be turning TT-QQ into a bluff or some A7 or A5dd type hand for you to win. I would just pitch it and move on to the next one. Prob looking at 44, 88, 99 too much.

seems like an easy fold to me.

Same decision if I told you I think he's tight, and he prolly thinks that I think he's tight as well? Like I think his hand looked pretty defined on turn as some pair.

where's longple and asong when you need them

Like my thought process when river dropped was along the lines of: "Ok not the greatest river, but I think I'm going to value bet (or bet to induce) like $1000-$1200 if he checks to me because I think he'll lead river with all straights or sets and there just isnt much in his range that makes straights or sets because he's tight." Then he leads the river and im like wtf??? :-

well if your original thought was that he'll lead river with all straights and sets, and then he proceeds to lead river, doesnt that mean he has a straight or set and you can go ahead and fold now?

The only hand that makes sense from him is 99 that thinks you are gonna chk back the river with the majority of your range--which you should. Only way I could see him bluffing is if he got to this river with specifically A7dd or A5dd, but that's only like two combos. If you were gonna bet that river I think you'd' be bluffing.

You have tons of 9x in your barreling range that gets to this river, don't know why you feel the need to protect KK so much here--only combos of worse hands at this point he can have are QQ JJ TT....some of which he might 4bet so you have to discount them some.

Hand seems kinda trivial.

Oh. Didn't see 1st time around whoosel posted exactly what I said. My bad. +1 to whoosel.

On June 29 2012 04:14 JonnyCosMo wrote: Like my thought process when river dropped was along the lines of: "Ok not the greatest river, but I think I'm going to value bet (or bet to induce) like $1000-$1200 if he checks to me because I think he'll lead river with all straights or sets and there just isnt much in his range that makes straights or sets because he's tight." Then he leads the river and im like wtf??? :-

i tend not to overthink things too much. easy vb when he chks, then ez pitch when he frontbets unless you have strong reason to believe otherwise. takes a special sort of player to c/c turn thinking hes good then lead riv as bluff realizing he can fold out your entire range almost.

I'm losing to only 99 thou I think this guy does not defend the suited aces, although i could be wrong. He seemed very tight.

I think its a fold, instinctively its a fold and when you break it down its possible he takes this line with TT,JJ and some AdXd its not gonna be with a 100% frequency as opposed to his value hands which he would lead almost always like you said in a post above, I think your leveling yourself a little with that thought process when in reality he prolly just leads because he thinks you will check back a lot on that river.

you are only losing to 99 and an unlikely 9x, theoretically I would like to think some time and then shove because I feel we are beating him close to 100% of the time and he does have TT/JJ/QQ a LOT. In practice I would probably just call.

On July 01 2012 23:57 locoo wrote: you are only losing to 99 and an unlikely 9x, theoretically I would like to think some time and then shove because I feel we are beating him close to 100% of the time and he does have TT/JJ/QQ a LOT. In practice I would probably just call.

the fuck?

On July 01 2012 23:57 locoo wrote: you are only losing to 99 and an unlikely 9x, theoretically I would like to think some time and then shove because I feel we are beating him close to 100% of the time and he does have TT/JJ/QQ a LOT. In practice I would probably just call.

how often does he call the shove with these holdings though

I agree with calling... not really with the shove part

So i'm like probably never shoving my hand lol