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$1 PLO what does villain have?

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InsideMan   United Kingdom. Jun 26 2012 13:53. Posts 159

UTG is a weak player, playing 58/34 over 609 hands with an aggression frequency of 42 (182/438). His first in raise from EP is 48. The BB is a competent reg whom I perceive to be aggressive, potentially over aggresive. He plays 23/16 over 668 hands, with a squeeze of 6 (1/18) and an aggression frequency of 54 (99/185). His CBet in 3-bet pots is 70 (7/10).
What do you make of his flop check and villains range? Do you like bet/bet? If you choose to bet the river, which bet sizing would you choose?

Submitted by : InsideMan

$1 PL Hi - Omaha Hi - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

CO: $284.55
BTN: $92.55
Hero SB : $102.50
BB: $89.25
UTG: $97.00
UTG+1: $202.67
MP: $58.05

Hero posts SB $1.00, BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: pot: $2.00 Hero has2sJd6sAd

UTG raises to $2.00, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $1.00, BB raises to $8.00, UTG calls $6.00, Hero calls $6.00

Flop: $24.00, 3 playersAsJc Js
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks

Turn: $24.00, 3 players 5d
Hero bets $18.00, BB calls $18.00, fold

River: $60.00, 2 players 4d
Hero bets

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There is no such thing as certainty in life, only opportunity.  

Darace   France. Jun 27 2012 11:30. Posts 255

Any competent reg would cbet this flop w/ AA imo.
I'd bet 39.87 riv.


MeProOk   Bulgaria. Jun 27 2012 12:42. Posts 246

Vil most probably has KKJ*, KQJT, QJT9, AA** type of hand. As played, i believe he has trips and no full house yet. I would bet around 27 and puke if he shoves


InsideMan   United Kingdom. Jun 29 2012 13:20. Posts 159

@ MeProOk

Against that range shouldn't we bet bigger? Do you think he's checking the flop with trips looking to fold to two barrels on this board run out?

There is no such thing as certainty in life, only opportunity.  

MeProOk   Bulgaria. Jun 30 2012 15:01. Posts 246

Well, if he has trips and no FH on the flop, he is checking to pot control. The only two hands that i think he can have is trips with no FH or aces full. I would bet that little on the river to eventually induce a crying call (player dependent ofc). If he shoves, I will be folding sometimes (most of the time). Despite the incredible odds we are getting, I don't see a hand that takes this line and loses to us.


NMcNasty    United States. Jul 11 2012 17:31. Posts 2041

bet/bet is mandatory.

You need to bet big enough for villain to think u might have missed spades, and you just want more value anyway. Villain can easily have just a naked ace or even KK or QQ and look you up. Facing a raise on the river should be a rare problem and shouldn't really be a part of your bet-sizing decision.


 



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