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$1 PLO 3rdNF 3-handed

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InsideMan   United Kingdom. May 21 2012 11:37. Posts 159

The game has broken and we are now playing 3-handed. The button is an aggressive regular that I perceive to be reasonable. He is running at 34/26/8 over 197 hands adjusted for 3-4 handed play. His raise first in from the button is 47%.
The BB is a weaker player. He is running at 76/30/3, with a 3Bet of 6 over 66 hands, adjusted for 3-4 handed play.
I generally have a tighter image in these games.
Do you prefer 3Betting preflop? What do you think about the river spot? I can call if he is always betting nuts/second nuts and the nut blocker, but is this a reasonable assumption. Do you think he sees enough fold equity to always be barreling the naked Ad?

Submitted by : InsideMan

Omaha Hi - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: $100.73
Hero SB : $379.60
BB: $324.29

Hero posts SB $1.00, BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: pot: $2.00 Hero hasJh3d4hJd

BTN raises to $4.00, Hero calls $3.00, fold

Flop: $9.00, 2 players4dKd 5d
Hero checks, BTN bets $5.00, Hero calls $5.00

Turn: $19.00, 2 players Th
Hero checks, BTN bets $14.00, Hero calls $14.00

River: $47.00, 2 players 8s
Hero checks, BTN bets $35.00, Hero

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There is no such thing as certainty in life, only opportunity.  

MiPwnYa    Brasil. May 21 2012 15:42. Posts 5230

"I can call if he is always betting nuts/second nuts and the nut blocker"
can you explain that to me ? I'm terrible at maths and hand combinations, but if this is his range how does that justify a call? (serious question)
flattin pf is prob correct


InsideMan   United Kingdom. May 22 2012 06:27. Posts 159

According to my analysis using Odds Oracle, after card removal his range consists of the following:

4202 hands w ad*d**
2517 hands w qd*d**!ad
4123 hands w ad!dd

His total range then consists of 10842 hands, so the % of naked Ad would be 4123/10842 = 38.03%. On the river we have to call 35 to win 47, our breakeven point is at 29.9%. So if he has the naked nutblocker 100% of the time then this is a call. Given our assumptions, his breakeven bluffing frequency on the river is 78.62% (29.9/38.03).

There is no such thing as certainty in life, only opportunity.  

MiPwnYa    Brasil. May 22 2012 08:10. Posts 5230

if he opens 48% on btn he prob dsnt open all the garbages that contain a naked Ad imo


InsideMan   United Kingdom. May 22 2012 09:37. Posts 159

These numbers are filtered for the top 48% of hands based on propookertools criteria, i.e. in this context you can read ad*d** as (ad*d**):48% and so forth.

There is no such thing as certainty in life, only opportunity.  

 



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