[nl100]JKs turned monster draw

Submitted by : the cleaner

***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** Poker Stars
$100.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Saturday, March 10, 08:10:43 ET 2012
Table Botein IV Real Money
Seat 6 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 $102.64 USD - VPIP: 21, PFR: 18, 3B: 8, AF: 3.8, Hands: 2295
Seat 2: Player2 $134.59 USD - VPIP: 17, PFR: 14, 3B: 6, AF: 0.7, Hands: 81
Seat 4: Player4 $88.04 USD - VPIP: 37, PFR: 10, 3B: 3, AF: 1.8, Hands: 385
Seat 5: Hero $120.50 USD - VPIP: 23, PFR: 19, 3B: 9, AF: 3.1, Hands: 852020
Seat 6: Player6 $89.45 USD - VPIP: 23, PFR: 22, 3B: 6, AF: 6.3, Hands: 283
Player1 posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
Player2 posts big blind [$1.00 USD].

Holecards
Dealt to Hero [ ]
Player4 folds
Hero raises [$3.00 USD]
Player6 folds
Player1 raises [$9.50 USD]
Player2 folds
Hero calls [$7.00 USD]

Flop (Pot : $20.50)

   
Player1 bets [$13.00 USD]
Hero calls [$13.00 USD]

Turn (Pot : $46.50)

   
Player1 bets [$28.00 USD]

standard shove, yea?

yeap

so much equity

I've got the feeling that he will fold his bluffy hands on the river and not fold if we hit.
So I just call.

On March 10 2012 11:52 waga wrote: I've got the feeling that he will fold his bluffy hands on the river and not fold if we hit. So I just call.

you shove every river card if he checks ?
what if he bets a brick (he may be doing this with his bluffs) ?

Yes and I don't think so.
Imo he will not 3barrel bluff this booard , but it's a good board to 2Barrel
I could be wrong tho

(edit : I probably check or fold a K river)

why is it a good board to double barrel? seems like a bad board to double barrel to me. We have KQ,AQ, JTs-ATs, QJs or oesd pretty much always.

Yes, shove.

If it's not a good board to 2 barrel ,then when he does, he should call all his range.
What's the point to shove when we've got no FE and an easy decision river ?

I mean all the hands he fold to a shove are the hands that will probably c/f river.

waga, i think we have a lot of FE on this board, and it would suck if turn goes ch/ch and we loose to AK or AJ type of hands. Also he could be folding hands like KT or JT/T9 or 99 to our turn shove.

hands he c/f river imo

my point is :
all the hands he 2barrel with lik AJ AK KJ AT JT 99 JJ etc will probably c/f river. (you represent a lot of strenght when you call 2 streets) and you've got an easy decision if he bet / good FE if he check.
He never fold AA KK AQ KQ obv ...


edit : If he shove river hands like AK AJ AT etc , then yes I prefer a shove obviously , but I'm quite confident he c/f a lot those hands.

We have no idea if he will c/f river with those hands. We have FE, it's just not a good board to double barrel with complete air.

Don't think he'll bet/fold a lot to be honest. By calling you're never making a mistake here because you get fine odds to draw so it's +EV always to call here. You don't even need to make any money on the river if you hit.

Then again shoving won't be terrible I guess. He could have some hands like AK/AJ/JK/AT that he might bet/fold the turn with so I guess there is some fold equity.

On March 10 2012 16:46 Twisted wrote: Don't think he'll bet/fold a lot to be honest. By calling you're never making a mistake here because you get fine odds to draw so it's +EV always to call here. You don't even need to make any money on the river if you hit. Then again shoving won't be terrible I guess. He could have some hands like AK/AJ/JK/AT that he might bet/fold the turn with so I guess there is some fold equity.

agree. one of those spots where i really dont think it matters a whole lot what you do, both plays seem reasonable/fine. i dont even know what i do more often. probably just shove over guys that 2 barrel a high percentage and call vs those who dont

Yea if you know he is never bluffing there you should obv call but if you think you have some FE (not a lot is needed given our raw equity) you should ship.

thanks guys

I'm pretty sure if he only folds like 15% of the time here this is an ez ship.

that said if that 15% only includes his air balls then i might tend to flat more. If he snaps most of his value range then call is probably better since well...this guy ain't folding teh queen

Yeah this is definitely a spot where you make the play based on what you think makes you more money from this particular player.

On March 16 2012 08:00 phexac wrote: Yeah this is definitely a spot where you make the play based on what you think makes you more money from this particular player.

LOL

On March 16 2012 08:00 phexac wrote: Yeah this is definitely a spot where you make the play based on what you think makes you more money from this particular player.

brilliant