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2c 2d by thewh00sel

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thewh00sel    United States. Feb 20 2012 05:31. Posts 2609

5/10 NLHE Full 9 handed game. Players of importance are:

UTG: Hero: 2500 TAG image, haven't done too much but been playing with both players for a couple hours
BTN: Villain 1: 2500 Is a little splashy but hasn't been spewing a ton, usually showing down the winner, bought in for 1k
BB: Villain 2: 2000 is eating food and is tight, his RR = big hand is my read on him

Hero raises to 40 with 2c2d
BTN calls 40
BB reraises to 160
Hero calls 120
BTN calls 120

Flop (485)
2s Tc 9d

BB bets 500
Hero calls 500
BTN calls 500

Turn (1985)
2s Tc 9d 4h

BB bets all-in 1340
Hero ?

The button calls very nonchalantly on the flop. He is trying to order food from the waiter but after the flop comes down and he calls, he sends the waiter away until after the hand. It feels like a big hand after he quick-calls this over pot-sized flop bet, but we are getting laid a pretty good price and we have the BB beat like 100% of the time, now what?

A government is the most dangerous threat to manís rights: it holds a legal monopoly on the use of physical force against legally disarmed victims. - Ayn Rand 

wobbly_au   Australia. Feb 20 2012 08:14. Posts 6232

Wtf call?

The Last Laugh. 

EvilSky    Czech Republic. Feb 20 2012 08:51. Posts 8876

Yea I dont see how you cant stack off here, surely BU has at least 9Ts,QJs in his range ? Those are 6 combos vs the 6 of oversets and with the odds you are getting no way you can fold imo.


NMcNasty    United States. Feb 20 2012 11:14. Posts 1535

I don't like the initial pf raise, but whatever.

Button can easily have 78o, QJo, J8s, and sometimes some gutshots making this a pretty easy shove.


thewh00sel    United States. Feb 20 2012 13:09. Posts 2609

I guess I wasn't very clear. Assume we have a read/tell that button always has 99/TT or 9T based on how he calls the flop.

So our pot odds right now, if we assume the button is always calling our shove, is 1985+1340+1840= 5165 in the pot, 1840 to call(shove) so 2.8:1 (35.6% equity we'd need to call) and if he has 9Ts,99,TT and BB has QQ+ our equity is:

Board: 2h 9s Td 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.214% 23.21% 00.00% 1404 0.00 { 2c2d }
Hand 1: 72.024% 72.02% 00.00% 4356 0.00 { TT-99, T9s }
Hand 2: 04.762% 04.76% 00.00% 288 0.00 { QQ+ }

So not nearly enough and a clear fold. Although if we expand it to 9To as well...


Board: 2h 9s Td 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.381% 52.38% 00.00% 5940 0.00 { 2c2d }
Hand 1: 42.857% 42.86% 00.00% 4860 0.00 { TT-99, T9s, T9o }
Hand 2: 04.762% 04.76% 00.00% 540 0.00 { QQ+ }

Then it's a clear call. I think the reality is a lot less T9o's so I gave him 3 out of the 12 possible combinations of T9o's which is:

Board: 2h 9s Td 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.260% 40.26% 00.00% 3348 0.00 { 2c2d }
Hand 1: 54.978% 54.98% 00.00% 4572 0.00 { TT-99, T9s, Th9c, Ts9c, Ts9d }
Hand 2: 04.762% 04.76% 00.00% 396 0.00 { QQ+ }

Which is about the right price to call. In the heat of the moment I decided to go with my read and just fold. I think it's closer than you guys think, but I do think I made a mistake versus his range.

A government is the most dangerous threat to manís rights: it holds a legal monopoly on the use of physical force against legally disarmed victims. - Ayn Rand 

YoMeR   United States. Feb 20 2012 13:28. Posts 12019

I think that even if we put button on super made hands only the fact that he shows up w T9 is reason enough to ship it in...and we gotta have a damn good reason to assume he never has T9 here.

Hell all that dead money in the pot makes this an "easy" stack off.

eZ Life. 

NMcNasty    United States. Feb 20 2012 13:58. Posts 1535


  On February 20 2012 13:09 thewh00sel wrote:
so 2.8:1 (35.6% equity we'd need to call)



Might want to check this.


thewh00sel    United States. Feb 20 2012 14:25. Posts 2609


  On February 20 2012 13:58 NMcNasty wrote:
Show nested quote +



Might want to check this.

Oh that's right I forgot I found out recently that I think I've been doing pot odds wrong for the past 5 years (lol i know but all my friends do it the same way I do it and 2 different people who I respect told me that I was doing it wrong). I heard someone explaining it and got confused, don't flame me, but are you supposed to factor in the money that you are about to call in the size of the pot as well? i.e pot is 3, player bets 1 Do you do 3+1/1 or 3+1+1/1? I was certain that I knew how to do this and that in that example your pot odds would be 4:1 but people told me recently it was 5:1; simple skill but have become less confident recently. A little ashamed to admit it but i'd like clear answers on that point.

As far as the % for the odds my bad i did 1/2.8 instead of 1/3.8. So i need 26.3%. Oh well. If it's the other way for pot odds then I am actually getting 3.8 to 1 instead of 2.8 so it makes a big difference. So someone just give me a quick noob breakdown because I've found arguments for both ways of doing it online and I need the correct way for future application. Don't want to compound my mistake more.

A government is the most dangerous threat to manís rights: it holds a legal monopoly on the use of physical force against legally disarmed victims. - Ayn Rand 

jeffv8x_-_16   Belgium. Feb 20 2012 14:38. Posts 2817

It's 2.8:1 which is roughly 26.5%, example: pot is 2, player bets 2 so you are getting 2:1(pot4/2 we have to call) which is the same as 66.666...:33.3333.... or 33%. Someone else will come along and explain it better though if you didn't get it .

how can u shove the river, he cant possibly call with worse -TalentedTom 

thewh00sel    United States. Feb 20 2012 14:55. Posts 2609

that's good news, I was doing it that way and someone told me you have to include the money you are about to put in as part of the pot and they are a good player so I thought there was something wrong with the way I was doing it.

A government is the most dangerous threat to manís rights: it holds a legal monopoly on the use of physical force against legally disarmed victims. - Ayn Rand 

NMcNasty    United States. Feb 20 2012 15:10. Posts 1535

Yeah that's it. A good rule of thumb is that if opponent bets less than pot your equity needed will always be less than 33.3%.

 Last edit: 20/02/2012 15:12

MezmerizePLZ    United States. Feb 20 2012 16:20. Posts 2500

This is the easiest call I've ever seen in my life.


wobbly_au   Australia. Feb 20 2012 16:26. Posts 6232

Whoosel why are you writing essays and advanced math here. Seriously....

The Last Laugh. 

Zep   United States. Feb 20 2012 16:54. Posts 2292


  On February 20 2012 14:55 thewh00sel wrote:
that's good news, I was doing it that way and someone told me you have to include the money you are about to put in as part of the pot and they are a good player so I thought there was something wrong with the way I was doing it.


did you mix up pot odds and reverse implied odds?

NeillyJQ: I really wanted to prove to myself I could beat NL200, I did over a small sample, and believe Ill be crushing there in the future. 

Rekrul   United States. Feb 20 2012 18:15. Posts 3336


  On February 20 2012 16:20 MezmerizePLZ wrote:
This is the easiest call I've ever seen in my life.

LOvEDoM says: ALL IN WAR 

JonnyCosMo   United States. Feb 20 2012 20:57. Posts 7158

I feel hypocritical if I berate you for folding here. :-p I call here thou

Everyone needs to see that you are king of the castle - PoorUser 

Target-x17   Canada. Feb 20 2012 21:41. Posts 1025

your reads are bad many players are going to be as interested in jq getting reasonable odds as a set. You said yourself the button is splashy so is he ever folding jq on the button?

Also think he should be shoving made hands as the 3rd man in on a 910 board?

f u bw rockLast edit: 20/02/2012 21:47

thewh00sel    United States. Feb 20 2012 22:30. Posts 2609

Like I said I felt like it was a mistake versus his range after further evaluation. Results: I folded and got lucky and ran into the part of his range that beat me, but just because I did, I didn't feel like it was the right play afterwards, which caused me to make the thread. Thanks for the berating I doubt I'll fold again in a similar spot after looking at the math more.

A government is the most dangerous threat to manís rights: it holds a legal monopoly on the use of physical force against legally disarmed victims. - Ayn Rand 

julep   Australia. Feb 20 2012 22:56. Posts 1229


  On February 20 2012 16:26 wobbly_au wrote:
Whoosel why are you writing essays and advanced math here. Seriously....


Fayth    Canada. Feb 20 2012 22:57. Posts 9807

not sure why you call pre flop if you plan on folding anywhere in the hand when you flop a set...

Im not sure what to do tomorrow when I see her, should I shake her hand?? -Floofy 

 
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