$10/$20 with a set on dry board. - Page 2

On February 12 2012 23:34 rememp wrote: Oh okay, well I never thought he was bluffing

77/88/J9/QJ/JT/JJ/98 are bluffs

On February 12 2012 23:34 rememp wrote: he would be shoving the seven hands you discounted because they get johnny cosmo out of the hand and he is playing for a sizable pot against what he conceives as a much weaker hand from fish who is already all in.

how can the fish not have 77 beat??

On February 12 2012 23:34 rememp wrote: My thought process was that cosmo looks to have a much stronger hand than fish so villain wants cosmo out.

sure, but he still have to beat the fish, who obviously can beat 77, 88 or Tx
op said nothing about him being completely braindead insane

I see. Okay so what is he shoving with?

Or what is his shoving range and can Cosmo call?

I'm actually going to apologize for posting in high stakes, because I only play 1/2 - 2/5 live and this is not even close to the same likely. In the game I play in I assigned the correct ranges I believe but it is obviously different.

I used to never post here (in high stakes) but there isn't a lot of activity on LP right now so I figured I would.

Player999 what do you think he is shoving with?

How would we calculate pot odds in this case?

For the side pot we're getting 1:1 which is pretty much a breakeven call if the villan has QQ+ in his range and T9 as value hands (along with the hands that beat us).


2,024 games 0.001 secs 2,024,000 games/sec

Board: 6c 9h Qs Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.852% 49.85% 00.00% 1009 0.00 { 6h6s }
Hand 1: 50.148% 50.15% 00.00% 1015 0.00 { QQ+, TT-99, T9s, 87s, T9o, 87o }

Not sure if we should include semibluffs in his range because of the shorty fish in the pot, I don't think he'd checkraise with an openender or gutshot.

Furthermore after the action, our hand looks pretty strong by flatting a checkraise in a three way pot, and I think more often hands like QQ+ would check/get to showdown after flop action (if he even flats preflop with these hands), removing those from his likely shoving range. Lower two pairs (which we have blockers for) I feel would be doing the same thing and not shoving the turn.

T9 would be the only value hand we beat that might shove the turn, and even then it's probably not 100% of the time as a set is likely in our range and probably the only hands calling a shove. If he is trying to bluff us off our hand (which we are likely unknown to him) to scoop the pot from the fish then I guess kudos to him.

That means I think in order to call a shove, we have to be confident that we are ahead of the fish by a large margin to scoop that pot and add it to our odds to call. With T9 in his range:

1,364 games 0.000 secs 272,800 games/sec

Board: 6c 9h Qs Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.563% 38.56% 00.00% 526 0.00 { 6h6s }
Hand 1: 61.437% 61.44% 00.00% 838 0.00 { TT-99, T9s, 87s, T9o, 87o }

Including the main pot we're getting about 2:1 so we call. Without T9 as a value hand though we'd be about a 4:1 dog and obviously fold.

I'd fold if on tilt. Call if I think my game has been super awesome as he flips over T9.

this^^

thanks guys, I talked to my brother about this and told him my range, and he instantly said guy is showing up with 78 a huge percentage of the time, so this makes a lot more sense

On February 13 2012 11:04 tynuji wrote: How would we calculate pot odds in this case? For the side pot we're getting 1:1 which is pretty much a breakeven call if the villan has QQ+ in his range and T9 as value hands (along with the hands that beat us). 2,024 games 0.001 secs 2,024,000 games/sec Board: 6c 9h Qs Td Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 49.852% 49.85% 00.00% 1009 0.00 { 6h6s } Hand 1: 50.148% 50.15% 00.00% 1015 0.00 { QQ+, TT-99, T9s, 87s, T9o, 87o } Not sure if we should include semibluffs in his range because of the shorty fish in the pot, I don't think he'd checkraise with an openender or gutshot. Furthermore after the action, our hand looks pretty strong by flatting a checkraise in a three way pot, and I think more often hands like QQ+ would check/get to showdown after flop action (if he even flats preflop with these hands), removing those from his likely shoving range. Lower two pairs (which we have blockers for) I feel would be doing the same thing and not shoving the turn. T9 would be the only value hand we beat that might shove the turn, and even then it's probably not 100% of the time as a set is likely in our range and probably the only hands calling a shove. If he is trying to bluff us off our hand (which we are likely unknown to him) to scoop the pot from the fish then I guess kudos to him. That means I think in order to call a shove, we have to be confident that we are ahead of the fish by a large margin to scoop that pot and add it to our odds to call. With T9 in his range: 1,364 games 0.000 secs 272,800 games/sec Board: 6c 9h Qs Td Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 38.563% 38.56% 00.00% 526 0.00 { 6h6s } Hand 1: 61.437% 61.44% 00.00% 838 0.00 { TT-99, T9s, 87s, T9o, 87o } Including the main pot we're getting about 2:1 so we call. Without T9 as a value hand though we'd be about a 4:1 dog and obviously fold. I'd fold if on tilt. Call if I think my game has been super awesome as he flips over T9.

Think T9o and 87o should be removed from the range. Pretty sure tight regs don't defend their bb's to EP opens w T9o and 87o

Without T9o and 87o these become the percentages.

1,188 games 0.000 secs 237,600 games/sec

Board: 6c 9h Td Qs
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.263% 51.26% 00.00% 609 0.00 { 6h6s }
Hand 1: 48.737% 48.74% 00.00% 579 0.00 { QQ+, TT-99, T9s, 87s }


---
528 games 0.000 secs 105,600 games/sec

Board: 6c 9h Td Qs
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.864% 23.86% 00.00% 126 0.00 { 6h6s }
Hand 1: 76.136% 76.14% 00.00% 402 0.00 { TT-99, T9s, 87s }

No change in equity really if he has overpairs (still essentially a flip) but now it becomes a definite fold if we take out the offsuit hand combos where he doesn't have overpairs. This makes sense I think because now we are beat by 13 out of 14 combos (92.8%) instead of 14 out of 16 (87.5%).

so johnny did you call and see 78s or 109s?

I folded

Thought I was playing my super A game too

On February 14 2012 06:13 JonnyCosMo wrote: Thought I was playing my super A game too

meaning you folded and villain won the pot with 109s v fish?

with TT/99

From a live play perspective, do you think it makes a difference if he timed on turn and then shoved instead of timing on flop before putting in the last $30? The only thing I can think of is villain potentially trying to drive us out on flop with a hand like JQhh to flip with the fishs' range and he figures you cant possibly put him on a bluff on turn jamming into a dry sidepot

On February 14 2012 12:43 gawdawaful wrote: From a live play perspective, do you think it makes a difference if he timed on turn and then shoved instead of timing on flop before putting in the last $30? The only thing I can think of is villain potentially trying to drive us out on flop with a hand like JQhh to flip with the fishs' range and he figures you cant possibly put him on a bluff on turn jamming into a dry sidepot

I feel like I'm getting trolled by someone whos in LA right now. Villan had exactly QJhh in the hand. And most of the time I don't think his timing makes all that much of a difference unless they instantly do an action. If Villan waits 10 seconds or 10 minutes, it usually can mean the same thing. Instant actions are different, they are pre-planned with some kind of reason behind them that is usually easy to figure out. You see fish do instant actions in spots where they have strong hands because they are scared of what cards can come and they secretly would rather you fold than call and suck out.

On February 12 2012 21:18 rememp wrote: Show nested quote + On February 12 2012 20:28 player999 wrote: why would he shove 77/88/J9/QJ/JT/JJ/98 on an empty side pot wtf? You are way better than me. Thus I yield to your opinion. Does this mean he shoves Q10 and 109? Or did you just forget to add those in? My thought process was that he wants to defend all those hands against Johnny and take the sizable pot against what he perceives as likely a much weaker hand. I mean he knows Johnny isn't in there with nothing. Explain to me please : )

Does this mean I was right? Or is he still showing up with 78s, 109s way more often? I don't want to be results oriented but I want to know if my thought process was in fact correct.

yes but you incorrectly included hands that cant beat the fish's

On February 14 2012 16:11 player999 wrote: yes but you incorrectly included hands that cant beat the fish's

kk thanks

On February 14 2012 06:12 JonnyCosMo wrote: I folded

i don't understand why you wouldn't just fold the flop if you're going to fold the turn...?

On February 14 2012 19:42 TimDawg wrote: Show nested quote + On February 14 2012 06:12 JonnyCosMo wrote: I folded i don't understand why you wouldn't just fold the flop if you're going to fold the turn...?

Truuuuust me when I say that wasnt the original plan. There were other things that went into me folding lol...