NL25 HU 99 - Page 2

On January 03 2012 12:37 TalentedTom wrote: Show nested quote + On January 03 2012 11:07 PillPoppin wrote:   On January 03 2012 00:04 TalentedTom wrote:   On January 02 2012 23:25 PillPoppin wrote: 4bet pre as played check back the turn to induce a bluff unless you think hes 3betting a bunch of 7x hands. If he checks the river i think overbetting is the way to go. juding from this post you sound like one of those really aggro preflop regs who has no idea how to play postflop ;-0 I think you're failing to realize that in this hand the hero is playing vs one of them. versus a 38% 3bet its probably worthwhile to up your 4bet to include 99. Otherwise, there is a ton of merit for taking lines that don't make sense with value hands. you may not know this, but the goal of poker is to make money, the EV of 4-bet getting it in with 99 200bb deep is thin / losing. There are exceptions, but if hero had a good read on the dynamic in the match he would not be posting here furthermore if villian sucks postflop, that's where we should be taking him as often as possible, especialyl in position - it's where we are going to make the most money in the match. he will also be pissed that he is missing the flops very often (which most hands do) - whereas im sure hes more then happy to just jam his AQo or TT preflop

owned

dont coach the fishes Tom -.-

based on your reads i don't think a river bet is all THAT good. if he's playing AA KK QQ like a bitch and c/calling them looks like a bad spot to vbet thin.

on the same note, if he is passive, it is just to easy to fold Ax's and not defend them on the turn.

i guess the question is how fed up is he folding to your aggression? if he is at his limit, then by all means vbet turn/river but it seems to me that this guy is a passive, tight nitfuck and there are prob better spots to exploit him


nice to see you playing again. wth is merge network and how can i starT?

On January 12 2012 00:08 mnj wrote: based on your reads i don't think a river bet is all THAT good. if he's playing AA KK QQ like a bitch and c/calling them looks like a bad spot to vbet thin. on the same note, if he is passive, it is just to easy to fold Ax's and not defend them on the turn. i guess the question is how fed up is he folding to your aggression? if he is at his limit, then by all means vbet turn/river but it seems to me that this guy is a passive, tight nitfuck and there are prob better spots to exploit him nice to see you playing again. wth is merge network and how can i starT?

even if he check calls JJ-AA its still a 100% clear bet, and its not close

i always appreciate your posts TT,

but we are betting turn and river to get called by wat range exactly?

if we are betting turn/river we are trying to bet small/small to get called by worse? (mainly A high?)

Good hand for discussion.
I note these opponennts "terrified of All-in" ;P . So the EV sizing river bet smaller vs the EV of shoving.

from the turn, if the line goes:
BET3/4-CALL, CHECK-BET1/2 (pot $24 stack $30 bet of $12)
That might get called by a much wider range than
BET3/4-CALL, CHECK-SHOVE (sizing the turn for river shove)

I am going to start rambling math out now. Jocks should look away




oah= of all (possible preflop) hands
Starting range: 40% 3bet: 77+,A2s+,KTs+,K5s-K2s,QTs+,Q3s-Q2s,J8s+,T6s+,96s+,85s+,74s+,62s+,52s+,42s+,32s,A9o+,A6o-A2o,KJo+,JTo,97o-96o,86o-85o,75o+,64o+,53o+,43o
-99 Equity on every dollar that goes in: 67%eq

Flop narrow: let's assume he doesn't cbet his weak pairs and some Ahi cause Edzwoo has been raising him alot, and he traps with 1/4 of his tens, so take those out.
flop bet range: 35%oah : 77+,AJs+,A9s,A7s-A2s,KTs+,K5s-K2s,QTs+,Q3s-Q2s,J8s+,T8s+,T6s,98s,96s,86s-85s,62s+,52s+,42s+,32s,AQo+,A9o,A6o,A2o,KJo+,JTo,97o-96o,86o-85o,64o+,53o+,43o
-99s Equity on every dollar that goes in: 76%eq

this is the range he takes to the turn.
Once he checks the turn can narrow it further by taking out some top-of-range value hands. leave half in. Take out a few airballs as well cause he surely bluffs some of the time, though he is on the passive side.
turn ck: 25%oah: KK,JJ,99-77,AJs+,A9s,A7s-A2s,KTs+,K5s-K2s,QJs,J8s+,T8s,T6s,96s,86s-85s,62s+,52s+,42s+,AQo+,A9o,A6o,A2o,KJo+,JTo,97o-96o,86o-85o,64o+


comparing the 2 lines, main question is how much of his range calls on the river
B3/4-C,Ck-B1/2-C
to
B3/4-C,Ck-SHOVE-C

both turn call ranges are going to be fairly similar, alot of junk hands fold and some of his top-value hands c-r
Turn call and also river range: 11.5%oah : JJ,99-77,AJs+,A9s,A7sA2s,KTs+,QTs,JTs,T8s,T6s,AQo+,A9o,JTo,97o

-99s Equity on every dollar that goes in: 73%eq

for comparing the 2 lines, main question is how much of his range calls on the river

for line Bet3/4-C,Ck-Bet1/2-C
It's reasonable to assume he picks it off with any pair and also picks off with alot of Ahis that called the turn lets say 80% of Ahis.
River 1/2pot Call range: 10.5%oah JJ,99-77,AJs+,A9s,A7s-A4s,KTs,QTs,JTs,T8s,T6s,AQo+,A9o,JTo,97o

-99s Equity on every dollar that goes in: 83%eq
Bet amount: $12
EV = $12*83% - $12*17% = $7.9

for line Bet3/4-C,Ck-SHOVE-C
Our read is that he is afraid to stack off, so assume almost all his Ahi find a fold
And cause assumed alot of his 7's would check flop due to Eds aggression,
River Shove Call range: 5.4%oah :JJ,99-77,AKs,KTs,QTs,JTs,T8s,T6s,JTo,97o

-99s Equity on every dollar that goes in: 55%eq
bet amount: $36
EV = $36*55% - $36*45% = $3.6

bottom line: max profit in this hand depends on getting him to call with Ahi, 1/2 potting is more profitable

But is there a more profitable line? From the notes it seem unlikely he will spaz bluff often so some kind of induce line is unlikely to be profitable. Is there a way to get more value without scaring him off.

I want to figure how profitable it would be if we had airball and were to bluff all in turn n river. later though.

lol poker

whats that thing with the slider on the bottom, that's not part of pokerstove is it?

also what does "oah" mean :S

oah is defined at the start of the rambling, just my notation to tell the difference between different types of percentages. cause you end up having: equity %, %of his turn range he folds, %of the time needed to be ahead when bluff catching a certain % potsize bet. etc

oah= of all (possible preflop) hands

Yes, its pokerstove, to get to that screen click on the "Player 1" label.

how do u have a pokerstove, mine is expired, i downloaded a new one from the site, but its still expired...

mine did too and I downloaded a new version from the stove website. version 1.24 iirc.

I've been playing around with flopzilla and I think I might buy that. Just because it counts the # hand combo for you so makes evaluating fold equity spots easier. And can weight a range, so I don't have to have a spotty range, like in the above where I say "assume he traps with half of his tens" to do that in poker stove I have to deselect half of the hands with tens in them. So I might keep TJ deselect QT, keep KT, deselect AT. Which can lead to serious errors when evaluating a hand over multiple streets.

I think bet bet is best. If he check/raises it kind of sucks but I don't think he does that very often unless you know he thinks you're floating a lot or something else that makes you think he'll go crazy with that. Considering how pretty our hand is right now and how much less pretty it'll be on a lot of rivers I vote bet bet. I don't want to do an induce size or something either, I feel his calling range (except possibly for spazzing) isn't very elastic. He'll call 1/2 as often as 4/5 so unless you want to balance I'd like to bomb this.

Hey Dusty, I've got a sick read on you, that you didn't read, the origional post with its reads (on this particular opponent)

On January 14 2012 15:17 Silver_nz wrote: Hey Dusty, I've got a sick read on you, that you didn't read, the origional post with its reads (on this particular opponent)

I did read it, figured that he's frustrated but that's not really enough of a read to know he'll spazz a lot, no?

I mean regarding 4/5th bombing the river, from the read, doen't it sound like he folds all his Ahis? but in other spots he has been happy to call a small bet with maginal sd value

people HATE folding A high on boards that have trips in HU.. it literaly never happens, they peel religiously, especialyl very aggresive players, they convince themsevles that they have tilted their opponent

if hes 3-betting, c-betting and then check folding A high here, esp with a 30%+ 3-bet, then this is a super easy/ profitable HU match